Views: 0 Author: Site Editor Publish Time: 2026-05-28 Origin: Site
1. Core Judgment
From June 2026 to early 2028, the PCB industrial chain will enter a two-year period of the most severe shortages and continuous price increases in history. Driven by AI computing power, the entire chain will present a strong boom pattern: upstream supply disruptions, midstream price increases, and downstream supply scrambling.
2. Demand Side: Non-linear Growth Ignited by AI Computing Power
Value Surge
The PCB value per single cabinet of AI server reaches about 700,000 RMB, 14 times that of ordinary servers, triggering a boom in high-end demand.
Accelerated Material Upgrade
Early mass production of NVIDIA LPU/Rubin drives an earlier outbreak of demand for M9-grade high-frequency and high-speed materials, with a market space exceeding 140 billion RMB.
3. Upstream: Comprehensive Shortages and Sharp Price Rises of Materials
• Copper Foil: A 25,000-ton shortage of P4 copper foil is expected in 2027; 1.6T optical module carrier copper foil is monopolized by overseas suppliers, with prices rising over 50% this year.
• Resin: High-end PPO resin prices rise by 20%; demand for hydrocarbon resin doubles, dominated by overseas suppliers with domestic breakthroughs just emerging.
• High-end Electronic Glass Cloth: Supply disruptions starting in June, orders fully booked until early 2028; second-generation Q-cloth capacity locked by Google and NVIDIA, prices surging.
• Equipment Bottleneck: Shortage of about 4,000 Toyota looms per year severely restricts the expansion of high-end electronic glass cloth.
4. Midstream: CCL Manufacturers Become the Biggest Winners
• CCL manufacturers can fully pass on costs, adding an extra 20%+ profit margin.
• Leading enterprises achieve substantial profit growth; prices are expected to surpass 2021 levels and remain high for 2–3 years.
5. Downstream: Supply Scramble, Capacity Locking and Extended Lead Times
• AI server and optical module manufacturers pay over 50% advance deposits to lock capacity for long periods.
• Lead times for high-end PCBs extend significantly, leading to a persistent supply-demand imbalance.
6. Four Core Reasons for Overall Price Increases
• Boom in AI Computing Power: Non-linear explosive demand rapidly absorbs industrial capacity.
• Rigid Upstream Supply: High technical barriers, slow expansion, and price control by overseas oligopolies.
• Full Cost Transmission: A closed price-increase loop from materials to CCL to PCBs.
• Structural Mismatch: Severe shortages in high-end segments vs. overcapacity in low-end segments.
7. Future Trends (H2 2026 – 2028)
• Prices and Lead Times: High-end products keep rising and tight in 2026–2027; price increases slow down in 2028 but still tight.
• Product Structure: High-frequency/high-speed, high-layer-count, automotive, and substrate-like PCBs become main growth drivers.
• Domestic Substitution: Accelerated breakthroughs in high-end materials and CCL, entering the global core supply chain.
• Industrial Concentration: Orders and profits gather toward leading enterprises; small enterprises exit gradually.
• Cycle Definition: Not a short-term rebound, but a 2–3 year long boom cycle driven by AI, with stronger momentum than 2021.
